Is the End has Begun ? : Saffron Fades 2019 poll analysis

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 Author: Arun Ravi                               

                     
                      Image result for bjp



          The very recent bypoll results makes many political observers to think that the saffron is fading away. As BJP claimed, it may be state issues leading to the defeat. This can be applicable in Bihar where people may be voted in the mind set of anger against the ruling JD(U). But in the case of UP where BJP got 2/3rd majority a year ago seems tumbled out. The most to be noted was that the bypoll constituencies where represented by CM and Deputy CM of the state. Moreover the north east elections which concluded a week ago where NDA won a sepctacular victory did not impact in this election. This clearly makes us to think whether people vote only for Modi and not for BJP in 2014.
In Bihar too the ruling coliation could not gain in the election. It retained its assembly seat alone. RJD's victory in Bihar made Tejeshwi Yadau a capable opponent to take on Nithis Kumar.

      The elections results made to worry not only BJP, but also Congress. Already the bell for Third Front has been rang by Telengana Chief Minister Chandrasekara Rao which was followed by Mamata Banarji. Congress has been trying to rope in the regional parties into its fold for last six months. On the other hand the regional parties are teaming up for a Federal front excluding Congress. In a recent interview DMK working president M.K.Stalin does not rule out about joining the Third front. DMK is currently part of UPA.

      The more possible Third Front Participants were,

  • Trinamool Congress - Mamata Banarji
  • Nationalist Congress - Sharad Pawar
  • Dravida Munnetra Kalazham - M.K.Stalin
  • Telengana Rashtriya Samti - Chandrasekara Rao
  • Samajwadi - Akilesh Yadau
  • Bahujan Samaj - Mayawati
  • Rashtriya Janata Dal - Lalu Prasad
  • JK National Conference - Farook Abdullah

   The others who may join Third Front depending on the Situation

  • Aam Aadmi - Arvind Kejriwal
  • Telugu Desam - Chandrababu Naidu (at the cost of Jegan)
  • YSR Congress - Jagan Mohan Reddy (at the cost of Naidu)
  • Siva Sena - Udau Thakarey
  • CPI & CPM (at the cost of Mamata Banarji)
  • Biju Janata Dal - Naveen Pantnaik
  • Janata Dal(secular) - H.D.Deva Gowda

    
     The formation of government with absolute majority may not be that much easy this time. It may be prejudice, but the present scenario  post 2019 elections the regional parties have a greater role to play at the centre.



      FACE OF OPPOSITION:

    Rahul Gandhi:
                      If the Third Front parties join UPA, there were much speculation that they will accept Rahul's leadership. Rahul at any cost was inferior. But the leaders in the opposition thought Rahul was less experiened than them. The two major headaches were Mamata Banarji and Sharad Pawar. Both were once Congress heavyweights prior to 2000, after which the started their own party.

  Nithish Kumar:
                     He was the only one seen as joint opposition face to take on Narendra Modi. But now he was in BJP fold leaving others to claim oppositions leadership.

  Mamata Banarji:
                 After Nithish Kumar's chapter was over, there emerges Mamata. Her aim for the North east was spoiled by Saffron surge. But she was still safe and comfortable in her home truf, West Bengal where all the opposition is far behind Trinamool Congress.


    We can't say what will happen in 2019. Its just a prediction. Anything may happen at anytime. Of course its politics we can't judge where there is no permanent friend or permanent enemy.


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Location: Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India

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