This is L(a)(o)st

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Author: Arun Ravi


Review on Karnataka assembly Election 2018:
  
       After a half a year fierce campaign and war of filthy words, there came the results. Cash for votes, Lingayat move and under estimation played their own roles. Congress, BJP and JD(S) competed for victory. While the congress and BJP has an organisational base throughout the state but the influence of JD(S) is limited to Southern Karnataka.
    Many predicted there is only an open contest between Congress and BJP. But the actual scenario was that the congress faced thought fight in Old Mysore region ( JD(S) stronghold) than the rest of the state. In the triangular contest, Congress had to face a double fight.
                       •Cong vs BJP
                       •Cong vs JD(S)
       Most of political analysts did not expect Congress's defeat as Congress did not face much anti incumbency. Most the opinion polls and exit polls predicted hung assembly.
   The BJP had performed very well in the Karnataka rural areas. The JD(S) too gave very impressive performance in all its strongholds, securing its traditional vote bank 20%. Several moves of Congress which were considered as perfect became flaws. Lingayat move is one such.
   Above all this election is considered as a Mandate for 2019 lok sabha elections. More over if Congress has allied with JD(S) the result may be different. If BJP formes the government it is 21st state in the line of its victory.
    The State may head for coalition government headed by BJP as less chances for JD(S) allying with Congress.
                                                                                                                                 Post-poll Alliance equation:
                                                                                                                               Although the numbers are clear right now, there are high chances for defections in next few days. As predicted former Prime Minister H.D.Deve Gowda's Janata Dal (secular) emerged as a 'Kingmaker'.
Chance 1:
                              BJP + JD(S)
          JD(S) may be offered a Deputy CM post along with important portfolios and significant numbers in cabinet berth. In this case H.D.Kumarasamy(former CM) or H.D.Ravenna may be selected for Dy.CM post. Less hold over the govt.
Chance 2:
                             Cong + JD(S)
           May even get a turn in government too if situation demands. Allocated high profile portfolios with Deputy Chief ministership.
  
  

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